如何在不确定的时期保持韧性：7 种期望和 8 种策略

My nature is cautiously optimistic. Like many people, I used to believe that our society was mostly stable and that much of the worst violence was a thing of the past. I imagine many people felt the same and saw no need to learn how to be resilient. Even when war was raging in my country (Croatia) during my childhood, I thought that most people were misguided and manipulated. Some of them certainly were – years later, I read this quote from an anonymous former Serbian soldier: “我浪费了自己的青春和健康，为贪婪的变态狂的帝国野心而战，却一直以为自己是在保护我深爱的祖国。”

As years went by, I slowly realized that the war was most likely desired and partly instigated by our own politicians, too, whose plan, it seems, was to plunder the country, enrich themselves, and install a new structure of power while the nation was struggling for bare survival. And that’s exactly what they did. Many people were angry, but the majority saw them as those who brought us independence, so they kept those politicians in power to this day.

当互联网出现时，我充满乐观，相信它提供的更多知识和更广阔的视野会让世界变得更美好。

On the other hand, most of my adult life has been a very slow, gradual realization that the values I grew up with and believe in are not necessarily shared by all—or even most—people. A significant number of people, yes, but perhaps not enough.

As a student, I believed that empathy is basic common sense and natural to everyone, and that if some people don’t show it, it’s due to fear or childhood trauma. This is certainly true for a significant number of people. However, later I came to realize that empathy has a 生物基金会 (“mirror neurons” for example), and biological traits vary among individuals. Empathy follows a “bell curve” distribution just like many other human traits. Unless we find a way to genetically modify that (which would be a risky practice with great potential for corruption and abuse), this is unlikely to change.

即使是具有一般同理心的人，也很容易受到情绪操纵或误导，尤其是在这种条件反射始于童年的情况下。这种情况在可预见的将来也不会改变。

It’s difficult to witness ideologies that openly and gleefully dehumanize women and other social and biological minorities spreading like wildfire through social media. It’s painful to realize how many people (even from diverse demographics) would enjoy making me, among many others, into a domestic servant and breeding stock, completely negating our value, intelligence, or historical achievements despite countless obstacles. Those people claim we should be happy to accept treatment they would never tolerate. It’s difficult to see even economic troubles being blamed on us rather than on corporate greed.

It’s also hard to be told that our groups are at fault for not being understanding and compassionate enough toward people with such ideologies—especially when we grew up suffering from those ideologies. I am aware, of course, that there are extremes and overly angry generalizations on the left, and I have called them out. But I hoped that we wouldn’t have to be 100% perfect for our basic humanity to be acknowledged, and for our wishes for freedom and equality, as well as our traumas, to be understood. Every group of people has its immature, unwise and malicious members; that doesn’t make the whole group inhuman.

However, at this point, we can’t count on enough compassion. Even if many hateful people are more misguided than truly malicious, consequences don’t care about intentions. The reality is that democracy and human rights are under the most intense and widespread assault we’ve seen in our lifetimes. We need to consider how to prepare for this.

Once, I was preparing for a trip to a developing country—not too dangerous, but not easy to backpack through. During my research, I read a quote that shocked me at the time: “Be aware: it is a common attitude of the local culture to see kindness and politeness as weaknesses to exploit. Don’t expect people to believe in the same values you do.”

At that time, I believed that such an attitude was an aberration—a result of childhood trauma and a difficult life. Again, this is true for many people, and there is potential for better in most of us. But there also seems to be a biological component. This appears true for people with low empathy in every society. History shows how often such an attitude prevails, especially when people live in poverty that makes them desperate.

And we can certainly expect more widespread poverty as workers’ rights and protections for vulnerable groups fall prey to corporate greed. Unfortunately, poverty by itself doesn’t lead people to make better decisions or foster compassion. Some countries show that people end up choosing one extreme leader after another. Those leaders lead them into even more poverty and might also lead them into war as a distraction.

Another quote that stayed with me is, “Weeds grow much faster than flowers.” Meaning, generalization is easy. Choosing simple and brutal but ineffective solutions is easy. Seeing a complex, long-term, compassionate perspective requires much more work.

以下是我所期待的一些事情和一线希望：

1. As things get tougher, don’t expect people who chose authoritarian leaders to acknowledge their mistakes. It’s difficult for most people to do so, and the propaganda and manipulation that brought them to this point will continue as strongly as before. Besides, authoritarian leaders are likely to sabotage true democracy in the future.

2. 和每个历史时期一样，有些人会涌向权力，愿意让寡头继续控制，以换取稍好的待遇。

3. However, corporations will eventually face two major problems. One is that when people are poor, they can’t buy products and thus make corporations richer. The other is that already falling birth rates will likely decrease further, as more people can’t afford children. This will create both a shortage of workers and consumers. Will the oligarchs in the USA be content with reduced income in exchange for power, as in Russia? Or will they betray their voters by increasing immigration, or will they increase efforts to force women to give birth? I don’t know enough about their mindset to tell.

4. 美国社会存在严重的孤立和极端个人主义，因此许多弱势人群一开始几乎得不到任何支持。然而，需求推动创造力，互联网让人们更容易建立联系并找到新的互助方式。更多的人可能会开始重视团结与合作。

5. 要想再次奴役妇女将很困难，因为仅靠一份工资已无法维持家庭的生存。无论是企业还是家庭，都将无力将女性排除在劳动力队伍之外，从而剥夺她们的独立性。

6. Nature (including human societies) always seeks balance, though it is never fully in balance. This is part of evolution. Every action has a reaction, and extremes are often followed by (unfortunately) the opposite extremes. I’m unsure, though, how long such a cycle will take, how brutal it will be, or even what the sustainable balance is.

7. There’s a possibility that enough people in other countries, observing the consequences of oligarchy in the USA, will see the need to avoid extreme ideologies and solutions, and will also recognize the risks of naivety and complacent idealism.

如何保持复原力：战略和建议

1. “Survival of the fittest” does not mean survival of the physically strongest or the most intelligent but of the most adaptable and creative. Therefore, it’s wise to “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.” Think about ways to adapt if things truly worsen—or even before. Consider how to protect yourself from physical violence, reduce expenses in case of poverty, and learn new skills, for example.

2. 在人类社会中，生存和福祉在很大程度上也取决于合作和相互支持。考虑创建线下或线上的互助社区。科学表明，帮助他人通常会增加幸福感。但是，要了解自己的底线，并与互惠的人为伍。有些人可能会试图利用这些社区或传播极端的意识形态，因此要做好准备，将他们揪出来。

3. Loving yourself and being compassionate to your emotions always eases pain. Acknowledge your emotions and love them, but don’t let them overwhelm you. Talk to them as you would to a child in pain, with compassion but also a broader perspective.

4. 当别人试图贬低我们时，即使我们没有意识到，也会在不知不觉中影响我们。一定要有意识地培养自己和他人的自尊心，从而抵消这种恶意的影响。

5. 让情感的痛苦激励你。让它告诉你生命中最宝贵的是什么，并激励你采取主动。

6. 痛苦有时会让我们变得多疑和粗鲁。谨慎是必要的，但要避免以偏概全和仇恨，或对他人大发雷霆。粗鲁会让每个人，包括我们自己，都变得更加糟糕。与政治对手进行沟通时，要有策略、深思熟虑，而不是诉诸贬低和侮辱，因为这样做永远不会取得预期的效果。

7. Physically fighting against one’s own nation is difficult and makes things even worse. However, peaceful civil disobedience may be a option in certain situations and communities. Read about 1975 Icelandic women’s strike例如

8. Even during tough times, there is still plenty of potential for love and joy. Love and joy found in community and solidarity are much more profound than those found in social media, shopping, video games, or similar distractions. Don’t wait for others to reach out to you—take the initiative to reach out to them.

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