不確実な時代に強くなる方法：7つの期待と8つの戦略

My nature is cautiously optimistic. Like many people, I used to believe that our society was mostly stable and that much of the worst violence was a thing of the past. I imagine many people felt the same and saw no need to learn how to be resilient. Even when war was raging in my country (Croatia) during my childhood, I thought that most people were misguided and manipulated. Some of them certainly were – years later, I read this quote from an anonymous former Serbian soldier: “貪欲なサイコパスの帝国的野望のために、私は青春と健康を無駄にした。”

As years went by, I slowly realized that the war was most likely desired and partly instigated by our own politicians, too, whose plan, it seems, was to plunder the country, enrich themselves, and install a new structure of power while the nation was struggling for bare survival. And that’s exactly what they did. Many people were angry, but the majority saw them as those who brought us independence, so they kept those politicians in power to this day.

インターネットが登場したとき、私は楽観主義に満ちていた。インターネットがもたらす知識の増大と広い視野が、世界をより良い場所にすると信じていたからだ。

On the other hand, most of my adult life has been a very slow, gradual realization that the values I grew up with and believe in are not necessarily shared by all—or even most—people. A significant number of people, yes, but perhaps not enough.

As a student, I believed that empathy is basic common sense and natural to everyone, and that if some people don’t show it, it’s due to fear or childhood trauma. This is certainly true for a significant number of people. However, later I came to realize that empathy has a 生物学的基盤 (“mirror neurons” for example), and biological traits vary among individuals. Empathy follows a “bell curve” distribution just like many other human traits. Unless we find a way to genetically modify that (which would be a risky practice with great potential for corruption and abuse), this is unlikely to change.

平均的な共感力を持つ人でさえ、感情的に操作されたり、誤った情報を与えられたりしやすい。これもまた、当面変わりそうにない。

It’s difficult to witness ideologies that openly and gleefully dehumanize women and other social and biological minorities spreading like wildfire through social media. It’s painful to realize how many people (even from diverse demographics) would enjoy making me, among many others, into a domestic servant and breeding stock, completely negating our value, intelligence, or historical achievements despite countless obstacles. Those people claim we should be happy to accept treatment they would never tolerate. It’s difficult to see even economic troubles being blamed on us rather than on corporate greed.

It’s also hard to be told that our groups are at fault for not being understanding and compassionate enough toward people with such ideologies—especially when we grew up suffering from those ideologies. I am aware, of course, that there are extremes and overly angry generalizations on the left, and I have called them out. But I hoped that we wouldn’t have to be 100% perfect for our basic humanity to be acknowledged, and for our wishes for freedom and equality, as well as our traumas, to be understood. Every group of people has its immature, unwise and malicious members; that doesn’t make the whole group inhuman.

However, at this point, we can’t count on enough compassion. Even if many hateful people are more misguided than truly malicious, consequences don’t care about intentions. The reality is that democracy and human rights are under the most intense and widespread assault we’ve seen in our lifetimes. We need to consider how to prepare for this.

Once, I was preparing for a trip to a developing country—not too dangerous, but not easy to backpack through. During my research, I read a quote that shocked me at the time: “Be aware: it is a common attitude of the local culture to see kindness and politeness as weaknesses to exploit. Don’t expect people to believe in the same values you do.”

At that time, I believed that such an attitude was an aberration—a result of childhood trauma and a difficult life. Again, this is true for many people, and there is potential for better in most of us. But there also seems to be a biological component. This appears true for people with low empathy in every society. History shows how often such an attitude prevails, especially when people live in poverty that makes them desperate.

And we can certainly expect more widespread poverty as workers’ rights and protections for vulnerable groups fall prey to corporate greed. Unfortunately, poverty by itself doesn’t lead people to make better decisions or foster compassion. Some countries show that people end up choosing one extreme leader after another. Those leaders lead them into even more poverty and might also lead them into war as a distraction.

Another quote that stayed with me is, “Weeds grow much faster than flowers.” Meaning, generalization is easy. Choosing simple and brutal but ineffective solutions is easy. Seeing a complex, long-term, compassionate perspective requires much more work.

私が期待することと、明るい兆しをいくつか挙げてみよう：

1. As things get tougher, don’t expect people who chose authoritarian leaders to acknowledge their mistakes. It’s difficult for most people to do so, and the propaganda and manipulation that brought them to this point will continue as strongly as before. Besides, authoritarian leaders are likely to sabotage true democracy in the future.

2. 歴史のどの時代もそうであったように、一部の人々は権力に群がり、多少良い待遇と引き換えにオリガルヒの支配を維持することを厭わない。

3. However, corporations will eventually face two major problems. One is that when people are poor, they can’t buy products and thus make corporations richer. The other is that already falling birth rates will likely decrease further, as more people can’t afford children. This will create both a shortage of workers and consumers. Will the oligarchs in the USA be content with reduced income in exchange for power, as in Russia? Or will they betray their voters by increasing immigration, or will they increase efforts to force women to give birth? I don’t know enough about their mindset to tell.

4. 米国社会では孤立と極端な個人主義が顕著であるため、弱者の多くは当初、ほとんど、あるいはまったく支援を得られないだろう。しかし、必要性は創造性を駆り立てるものであり、インターネットはつながりやすく、互いに助け合う新しい方法を見つけやすくする。連帯と協力に価値を見出す人が増えるかもしれない。

5. 一家が一人の給料では生きていけなくなり、女性を再び従属させることは難しくなるだろう。企業も家庭も、女性を労働力から締め出し、自立を否定する余裕はなくなるだろう。

6. Nature (including human societies) always seeks balance, though it is never fully in balance. This is part of evolution. Every action has a reaction, and extremes are often followed by (unfortunately) the opposite extremes. I’m unsure, though, how long such a cycle will take, how brutal it will be, or even what the sustainable balance is.

7. There’s a possibility that enough people in other countries, observing the consequences of oligarchy in the USA, will see the need to avoid extreme ideologies and solutions, and will also recognize the risks of naivety and complacent idealism.

レジリエンスを高めるには：戦略とアドバイス

1. “Survival of the fittest” does not mean survival of the physically strongest or the most intelligent but of the most adaptable and creative. Therefore, it’s wise to “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.” Think about ways to adapt if things truly worsen—or even before. Consider how to protect yourself from physical violence, reduce expenses in case of poverty, and learn new skills, for example.

2. 人間社会では、生存と幸福もまた、協力と相互支援に大きく依存している。オフラインでもオンラインでも、役に立つコミュニティを作ることを考えよう。科学によれば、他人を助けることは一般的に幸福感を高める。ただし、自分の境界線をわきまえ、互恵的な人たちに囲まれるようにしましょう。そのようなコミュニティを悪用しようとしたり、極端なイデオロギーを広めようとしたりする人もいるかもしれないので、そのような人を呼び出す準備をしておきましょう。

3. Loving yourself and being compassionate to your emotions always eases pain. Acknowledge your emotions and love them, but don’t let them overwhelm you. Talk to them as you would to a child in pain, with compassion but also a broader perspective.

4. 人が私たちを貶めようとするとき、それは私たちが意識していなくても、無意識のうちに影響を与えることがある。自分自身や他人の自尊心を意識的に高めることで、この悪意ある影響を打ち消すようにしよう。

5. 感情的な痛みは、あなたを奮い立たせる。あなたが人生で最も大切にしているものを示し、率先して行動する気にさせるのだ。

6. 痛みは時に私たちを疑心暗鬼にさせ、無礼にさせる。注意は必要だが、一般論や憎しみに屈したり、他人に暴言を吐いたりするのは避けよう。無作法は、自分自身を含め、すべての人にとって事態を悪化させる。決して望ましい結果をもたらさない中傷や侮辱に頼るのではなく、戦略的かつ思慮深く政敵とコミュニケーションをとること。

7. Physically fighting against one’s own nation is difficult and makes things even worse. However, peaceful civil disobedience may be a option in certain situations and communities. Read about 1975 Icelandic women’s strike例えば、こうだ。

8. Even during tough times, there is still plenty of potential for love and joy. Love and joy found in community and solidarity are much more profound than those found in social media, shopping, video games, or similar distractions. Don’t wait for others to reach out to you—take the initiative to reach out to them.

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